Historical Accurracy

We've used the 51,191 games in our database, dating back to 2015, to compute the likelihood that a game would end with certain score margins based on the predicted score margin. Note that of these games, we only use the 32,179 games from January through March.

Select a margin of victory to see how teams have fared historically when the model would have predicted that margin:

Score Margin

There are 2,892 games in our database where the predicted margin of victory was 1.

The team won 53.42% and lost 46.58% of those games:

Result	Frequency
Lose By at least 20+	2.90%
Lose By at least 16-19	6.54%
Lose By at least 13-15	11.03%
Lose By at least 10-12	17.25%
Lose By at least 8-9	22.61%
Lose By at least 7	25.45%
Lose By at least 6	29.36%
Lose By at least 5	33.26%
Lose By at least 4	36.93%
Lose By at least 3	40.46%
Lose By at least 2	43.43%
Lose By at least 1	46.58%
Win By at least 1	53.42%
Win By at least 2	50.31%
Win By at least 3	46.51%
Win By at least 4	42.91%
Win By at least 5	39.00%
Win By at least 6	34.96%
Win By at least 7	31.74%
Win By at least 8-9	28.73%
Win By at least 10-12	21.44%
Win By at least 13-15	14.11%
Win By at least 16-19	9.06%
Win By at least 20+	4.84%

Historical Accurracy

Win % by Predicted Margin of Victory