How Accurate Are These Predictions?

Historical results by predicted margin of victory

This analysis examines how often the model's predicted margins align with actual game outcomes, using historical NCAA men's college basketball results.
The dataset includes 52,504 games dating back to 2015, with a focus on the 33,435 games played from January through March.

Select a predicted margin of victory to see how teams have historically performed when the model projected that outcome:

Score Margin

There are 3,095 games in our database where the predicted margin of victory was 1.

The team won 53.15% and lost 46.85% of those games:

Result	Frequency
Lose By at least 20+	3.17%
Lose By at least 16-19	6.79%
Lose By at least 13-15	11.57%
Lose By at least 10-12	17.35%
Lose By at least 8-9	22.58%
Lose By at least 7	25.46%
Lose By at least 6	29.34%
Lose By at least 5	33.05%
Lose By at least 4	36.51%
Lose By at least 3	40.39%
Lose By at least 2	43.46%
Lose By at least 1	46.85%
Win By at least 1	53.15%
Win By at least 2	50.05%
Win By at least 3	46.07%
Win By at least 4	42.16%
Win By at least 5	38.35%
Win By at least 6	34.54%
Win By at least 7	31.34%
Win By at least 8-9	27.82%
Win By at least 10-12	20.32%
Win By at least 13-15	13.44%
Win By at least 16-19	8.76%
Win By at least 20+	4.56%

How Accurate Are These Predictions?

Win % by Predicted Margin of Victory